Economy,  FIRE,  Investing,  Stock Market

An Uneasy Feeling

Reading Time: 2 Minutes

MrsFrugalSamurai recently asked me how the performance of our stock portfolio is going.

“Decent” was my one word reply.

Why? She wanted to know.

I could have told her it was because one of our holdings has received a significant boost from the early roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine.

Or that another holding has surged off all-time lows from March last year.

Even still, another could be the prospect of re-opening international borders, which would allow free travel to commence once more.

But.

The truth is.

I don’t know.

More to the point, I don’t think anyone truly knows why markets move up or down.

We can only comment in retrospect, but in real-time it’s impossible to know.

Mind you, there’s still some data points which we can access in real-time, to try and get a better picture of what’s happening out there.

Data points like:

RISK ON BABY

Or other tidbits like:

Largest week of inflows for equities AND tech

Although it’s still not as fascinating as:

90% of new stock listings are for loss-making companies…

And another hole-in-the-wall stat (thanks Gav!):

In a nutshell, calls means profiting from markets going up, puts means profiting from market going down

I could go on of course, and throw in some random chart like:

Google “Buffet Indicator”

But why bother, because the only one that matters is this one:

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Sorry to go a bit loopy with the data dump there, but if you could follow all that – basically, what I’m trying to say, is that risk is well and truly on at the moment.

Almost to a dangerous level in my eyes.

But it kinda doesn’t matter, cos the Fed has our backs. Don’t fight em remember?

So back to our family portfolio.

Truth is, I didn’t want to admit to MrsFrugalSamurai that I have no idea what I am doing.

Whether we should be buying more, holding or selling down asap.

I’ve had this feeling of flux for a while now, and I don’t know what to do next.

It’s a peculiar feeling, and one which I’ve never felt before in investing.

And that makes it not “decent”.

Not decent at all.

What about you guys? Does anyone else feel it?


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6 Comments

  • Sneak's Fireplace

    Great data dump.

    The markets are certainly crazy, as they were at the start of 2020 due to Covid.

    One thing that has made me feel at ease is all the experts were saying the markets would take years to recover, and in reality they took months – just shows, no one knows anything.

    Continue to invest a monthly amount into a broad ETF’s and LIC’s and ignore the external noise. Re-evaluate in 10 years time.

  • steveark

    Who cares? If it crashes it will eventually climb back up. As long as you sell nothing you’ll be absolutely fine. You certainly can’t try to time it unless you are OK with timing the market for the rest of your life, some people are, but most of them are broke. I watched my life savings get cut in half more than once in the past, it wasn’t a big deal then and it isn’t a big deal if it happens tomorrow. I’m only half in stocks now, not from a timing perspective but because once you’ve won the investing game it isn’t a bad idea to take some money off the table.

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