Reading Time: 3 Minutes
Hola senors and senoritas!!!
Como estas?
Estoy bien gracias!
What’s that? It’s Chinese New Year?
Oh shit.
Um.
女士们先生们大家好!!!
大家都好吗?
我很好，谢谢!
新年快乐!
For those of you who weren’t aware, today is Chinese New Year, one of the biggest days on the calendar in the Chinese culture.
Why is it called Chinese New Year?
I think it’s because it is the New Year celebrated by the Chinese.
Oh and it’s also known as the Lunar New Year – something to do with the moon and the stars and handing out red pockets.
It’s supposed to be a time for family reunions and removing bad luck to usher in all that is good and prosperous.
Celebrating Chinese New Year here in Oz ain’t got nothing compared to celebrating it in China though.
I remember once, many moons ago – I was lucky to have experienced CNY back in the old country.
It was the first year after several when the local population was allowed to set off domestic fireworks – and on New Year’s eve, the whole night sky was lit up for FUCKING HOURS.
I lit a fair few big berthas off myself – almost blew my arms off on many an occasion – one of the most exhilarating fun I’ve ever had in my entire life.
Even today, I compare the fun-o-meter to that one magical night in Beijing.
“Am I having so much fun that my arms are about to be blown off?”
No?
Well, I’m just not having any fun.
But I digress.
This post is not about blowing one’s arm off with home-made fireworks.
No, this post is a forward-looking one based on what I think may happen for the coming year ahead.
Everyone loves a good prediction – me most of all, purely because anyone can make them, and if it doesn’t turn out that way, well – it was only a prediction right?
I’ll start off with everyone’s favourite – that of…
House Prices
So, house prices ended last year with a tiny dip—mostly in Melbourne, with Sydney slipping and sliding along for the ride.
The boom phase is officially over, and the risk of further declines looms like a shitty Marvel sequel.
But unless the world’s hit with another catastrophic black swan event (war, pandemic, natural disaster etc), we’re probably in for a year of “meh” growth until those elusive rate cuts arrive.
Don’t expect a price explosion though, but Perth, Brisvegas, and Radelaide are still holding onto their glory days for now.
The Economy
Australia’s economy wrapped up the year doing… okay-ish.
Population growth (immigration) and government spending were the stars of the show, while the actual market economy is pretty darn weak.
Don’t expect a sudden burst of economic magic as discretionary industries (like your neighbourhood cafe) will probably continue to drop like flies.
Meanwhile, China’s slow deflationary drag will keep weighing down our economy.
Globally, the U.S. might lead an economic recovery, though I am expecting Captain Trump to steer the SS America on a more prudent course versus much of his rhetoric (such as annexing Greenland, Canada and Mexico) – expect fewer tariffs and deportations also.
Interest Rates
Surprise, surprise— everyone is expecting interest rates are going down.
Inflation’s tamed, consumer spending’s in the dumps, and business confidence is somewhere near rock bottom.
The only thing holding rates up is the labour market, which is being propped up by the public sector.
The RBA is taking its sweet time, but with inflation inching closer to acceptable levels, we’re probably looking at a rate cut sometime after the federal election.
Chiefly because I don’t think it wants to play politics and secondly because inflation figures remain stubbornly just above target levels (2-3%).
Politics
Speaking of politics, it looks like Albanese might just be a one term PM.
I say this because many incumbent governments are being punished by their voters for the collapse in living standards – just check out what happened recently in Canada, where incumbent and long-standing PM Justin Trudeau had to resign.
Back home, ol mate Dutton’s political strategy should basically just be a human speed bump – keep low, keep quiet, and try not to do anything embarrassing.
Politics, yuck.
Cryptocurrency
I’ll throw this one in there, just for shits and giggles. What’s ahead for cryptocurrency?
Well, depending on who you believe, we are probably 70% or so into the “bull market”.
But as someone who’s trying to crawl my head above water in this arena – I have to ask, “what bull market?”
One thing I’ve realized about cryptocurrency, more than any other sector – is that no one knows what the fuck is going on.
At least commentators in the housing and stock markets pretend to have an idea.
But in crypto?
Nah, everyone’s got an opinion about why this happened or that happened or will happen or won’t happen.
Which means no one’s got any idea – least of all me.
Making Moonay
Despite my ramblings, there’s still money to be made in 2025. Uncertainty is your best friend—it creates opportunities if you know where to look.
It might be a bumpy ride, but hey, my crystal ball is telling me this year’s shaping up to be a mix of “hold your breath” moments and boom boom chances to win big, if you’re savvy enough to grab them.
Happy New Year everyone!
新年快乐, 恭喜发财!!!
Did you enjoy this post? If yes, put your email in and click on the little “subscribe” button at the top right. You’ll also receive a free copy of the Complete Aussie FIRE e-book – The Ultimate Guide to Financial Independence for Australians.
Or you can follow me here:
P.S. Every post is the personal opinion of yours truly, please seek your own personal financial advice regarding your own personal circumstances.
