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Back again for another post tonight…
Sigh, still getting over the news of last week (read here), but hey I’ve said right at the start of this blog that I’ll try and push through the good and the bad.
Life’s not all about sunshine and lollipops y’know.
I think too many of us on the interwebs only portray our best face forward, but life’s a biatch and sometimes we all gotta acknowledge that.
Takes deep breath.
Back to it.
In the last week or so you might have noticed that something is rotten in the state of Hong Kong.
There’s been mass protests GALORE.
What’s all the fuss over?
Basically cos of a proposed change in legislation which would allow people to be extradited to mainland China for trial of crimes committed.
The fear is that any persons who run afoul of China e.g. political dissidents or out-spoken individuals can be whisked away to be tried in a Chinese court.
Locals believe it is the latest political subterfuge from China in trying to encroach their own jurisdiction onto Hong Kong law.
But whoa, whoa, getting ahead of ourselves. First some history shall we?
Orwellian books aside, this year was also when Britain agreed to return Hong Kong to Chinese rule with the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1984.
The declaration promised to return the territory to China in 1997 under a “one country, two systems” principle, with Beijing guaranteeing HongKongers a high degree of autonomy and freedoms for a period of 50 years.
The protests arise mainly because this level of autonomy is currently threatened.
What do you think TheFrugalSamurai?
The first thought which popped up for me, is what a difference a few weeks can make.
For MrsFrugalSamurai and I literally walked along the same streets when we were there earlier in the year (read here).
Not to incite civil unrest mind you, but as simple tourists.
The second thought which popped up, is that I hope Mr Wong and his juice stand on Hennessy Road is doing a roaring trade – poor guy really needs a lift. His freshly cut sugar cane juice on ice? Superb. Licks lips.
OK, so touring and juicing aside, I think it’s a fundamental right of an individual to express their opinion, doesn’t matter where they originate from. So damnit if I’m not gonna get a sugar cane hit first thing tomorrow.
But I also think that it is naive to think that China will allow protests of this magnitude to develop in the future.
In fact, I would also expect that it’s the end of Carrie Lam (Hong Kong’s leader) in the political inner circle with this significant loss of “face”.
You wouldn’t imagine that her boss in Beijing aka the Chinese Winnie would take this lightly.
I wouldn’t be surprised if a hard-liner steps into power next. Someone tasked to get things in order in a take-no-prisoners kinda way.
It’s gonna be interesting viewing in the next few years how China assimilates Hong Kong back into the fold.
OK, TheFrugalSamurai… but how does this affect me?
Hmm, so unless you are of Mainland Chinese or Hong Kong Chinese descent, it probably doesn’t affect you too great on an emotional level.
However it may have indirect financial consequences.
Well because Chinese Winnie and his counter-part The Donald McDonald are going to be involved in a very high-stakes heads-up poker game in the coming few days.
The prize pot is of course the trade war (earlier post here).
The outcome of which has enormous repercussions for global trade and the global economy.
So my bet is that Chinese Winnie is going to be under significant pressure to adopt a harder stance with negotiations to reclaim some of the “face” he has lost.
And it wouldn’t surprise me to see a no-deal result from the end of it, which would further create economic uncertainty.
Which would enable asset prices to crash through the floor.
Which would enable a cashed-up personal finance and development blogger to swoop in.
Which would enable said personal finance and development blogger to FIRE BABY FIRE.
Which would enable our intrepid hero to pursue the next chapter of his life: POLITICS.
Which would enable the citizens of Hong Kong to finally choose someone who shares their ideals, their dreams, their destiny – YES WE CAN.
OK so the example may have been a bit facetious, but frankly that’s where it’s going to hurt us methinks.
Um. Not because I’m going to rule Hong Kong one day (a boy can dream)… but because it’s just increased the odds of further economic unrest.
Everything is inter-related y’see?
I’m gonna bookmark this post to see whether the negotiations pan out as I predicted.
Maybe you should too!
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P.S. If you are a Chinese pro-government hacker reading this, please spare this humble blog… just an ordinary guy trying to make sense of this crazy, crazy world.